Earnings Season Kicks Off as TSMC and Big Banks Set the Market Tone

From an editorial perspective, the significance lies in timing. The U.S. winter earnings season begins this week against a backdrop of easing inflation expectations, cautious consumer signals and growing attention to artificial intelligence demand.

Investors will be closely watching results from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest contract chipmaker, as well as quarterly reports from leading U.S. banks. Together with fresh macroeconomic data, these releases are likely to set the tone for markets in the second half of January.

Key earnings this week

A total of 49 companies are scheduled to report earnings, including 14 constituents of the S&P 500.

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) — January 15, before market open
• JPMorgan Chase (JPM) — January 13, before market open
• Bank of America (BAC) — January 14, before market open
• Wells Fargo (WFC) — January 14, before market open
• Morgan Stanley (MS) — January 15, before market open
• Goldman Sachs (GS) — January 15, before market open
• Citigroup (C) — January 14, before market open
• BlackRock (BLK) — January 15, before market open

TSMC’s report is expected to offer one of the clearest signals yet on global demand for AI-related chips, an area that has driven much of the equity market’s momentum over the past year.

Meanwhile, U.S. bank earnings remain a key barometer of consumer health, credit demand and lending conditions. Executives at JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo have recently warned about elevated economic uncertainty and slower growth in net interest income at parts of the sector.

Inflation and consumer data in focus

On January 13, the U.S. will publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December. Consensus forecasts point to a moderation in annual inflation to 2.6%, down from 2.7% in November and 3% in September.

Housing data will also be released early in the week, including new home sales for September and October, offering further insight into demand trends amid higher borrowing costs.

On January 14, investors will turn to retail sales for November, a critical indicator for assessing the strength of the holiday shopping season and overall consumer momentum.

Later in the week, markets will digest the Producer Price Index (PPI) for October and November, alongside data on existing home sales for December.

Federal Reserve outlook

Several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak throughout the week. Their comments will be parsed for any shifts in tone ahead of the next FOMC meeting on January 28.

At present, markets assign roughly a 95% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at that meeting. However, incoming inflation and earnings data could still influence expectations for the policy path later in the year.

As historical cycles often show, early earnings results and macro data can have an outsized impact on sentiment — especially when valuations remain elevated.