FOMC Minutes in Focus as S&P 500 Tests Key Technical Levels

From an editorial perspective, the significance lies in timing. Markets are entering today’s session balanced between solid macro data and growing sensitivity to policy signals.

FOMC Minutes in Focus

The release of the January FOMC minutes may trigger a volatile reaction. Investors will closely analyze the reasoning behind Governor Christopher Waller’s dissent in favour of a rate cut. The key question: how comfortable is the Federal Reserve with “moderate” inflation if consumer demand remains firm?

While the baseline expectation remains steady rates, nuance inside the discussion could shift expectations for the coming months.

Macro dаta: Industrial Production and Durable Goods

Industrial production data for December (consensus: +0.4% month-over-month) is expected to show continued resilience in the manufacturing sector. Sustained demand and stable output would reinforce confidence in economic durability — and potentially support the Fed’s current policy stance.

Durable goods orders and housing construction data will also be released today, adding further direction to the macro narrative.

Previous Session

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed the prior session largely unchanged. SPX held above the 6,800 level within its medium-term ascending channel. Nasdaq futures (NQ) defended support near 24,500 but remain below a local descending trendline.

Today’s Technical Levels

Futures on both indices are showing moderate gains.

• S&P 500: Support remains at 6,800. Resistance stands near 6,900.
• Nasdaq (NQ): Support at 24,500. Resistance near 25,000 and the local descending trendline.

Maintaining positions above support levels is critical to prevent renewed downside pressure. Failure there would weaken short-term momentum further.

Sector Performance

Cyclical sectors showed mixed performance. Leaders included ITA and XLF, while XLB and XLE lagged.

Growth sectors were mixed as well. TAN and IBB outperformed, while SKYY and IPO underperformed.

Defensive sectors declined, with XLP pulling back after recently setting a new high.

Cross-Asset Signals

• Oil remains in a local consolidation pattern above $62.
• U.S. Treasury yields are attempting a rebound from the 4% level within a short-term corrective channel.
• VIX retreated back below a medium-term descending trendline, approaching 19.
• Gold continues consolidating above 4,900.

Risk balance remains neutral — but volatility is elevated. The tone of today’s Fed minutes could determine whether markets regain upward momentum or slip back into consolidation.