Neutral Risk Balance as Futures Drift Ahead of Services PMI

U.S. equity futures are showing consolidation dynamics on Tuesday, with investors taking a cautious stance ahead of key macroeconomic data, including the December Services PMI.

Previous Session

In the prior trading session, major U.S. indices closed higher. The S&P 500 finished near the 6,900 level, approaching its all-time highs, while the Nasdaq Composite ended around 25,400, rebounding from the lower boundary of its medium-term ascending channel.

Market Setup Today

During early trading, S&P 500 futures are holding near the 6,900 level, maintaining price action close to record territory. The 6,800 area continues to act as key technical support.

Nasdaq futures are consolidating above 25,500, forming a short-term range. The 25,000 level remains an important support zone for the index.

Key Market Drivers

Investor attention is focused on several macro and market catalysts:

• The final reading of the S&P Global Services PMI for December (consensus: 52.9, unchanged).
• Publication of the Composite PMI from S&P Global.
• Updated data on speculative positioning in major equity indices from the CFTC.

A PMI print in line with expectations would confirm resilience in the U.S. services sector — a key pillar of domestic demand — which markets are likely to interpret as a supportive signal.

Sector Performance

Cyclical sectors moved higher in line with the broader market during the previous session. The strongest performers included energy (XLE), financials (XLF), aerospace & defense (ITA), and consumer discretionary (XLY).

Growth sectors showed mixed dynamics. Semiconductors (SOXX) and communication services (XLC) led gains, while biotechnology (IBB) and cannabis-related stocks (MJ) lagged.

Defensive sectors underperformed, with utilities (XLU) extending declines within a downward-sloping channel.

Cross-Asset Signals

In broader markets, oil prices are approaching a test of the $59 level while remaining within an ascending channel.

U.S. Treasury yields continue to trade sideways near 4.17%, supporting risk appetite across equities and cryptocurrencies.

The VIX volatility index, after setting recent lows, is consolidating around the 15 level, indicating subdued volatility expectations.

Gold remains in an upward trend, holding near $4,470, reflecting ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Tech Sector in Focus

Attention is also centered on the technology sector as the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2026 opens in Las Vegas. Executives from major technology companies, including Nvidia, AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm, are expected to outline developments in AI-driven computing, automation, and robotics.

These developments could further support demand for AI-related equities and automation-focused growth stocks in the near term.

Market Outlook

Futures pricing suggests a calm market open with no sharp moves expected. The overall risk balance remains neutral, with moderate volatility.

In the near term, the S&P 500 is expected to trade within a 6,870–6,940 range, pending fresh macro or sector-specific catalysts.

Technical analysis by: Lucas Grant, Senior Technical Analyst at Finmire.