Nvidia Regains China Access After Months of “Zero Sales” Forecasts

The Biden-era export restrictions on advanced AI chips took a dramatic turn this week after President Trump announced that the United States will allow Nvidia to ship its H200 processors to approved customers in China. The move represents the first major thaw in the US–China semiconductor standoff and immediately reshaped market expectations for American chipmakers.

Trump said he had personally informed China’s President Xi of the new arrangement, noting that “25% will be paid to the United States of America” under the structure being finalized by the Commerce Department. The same framework, he added, will apply to AMD, Intel and other US chip manufacturers.

The announcement follows months of near-total uncertainty around Nvidia’s China prospects. The company had repeatedly forecast zero chip sales to China due to tightened export controls—a severe setback considering China was once one of Nvidia’s largest global markets.

Nvidia Reenters a Market It Once Dominated

Before the trade war, Nvidia controlled an estimated 95% of China’s AI accelerator market, supplying hyperscalers, research institutions and large-scale training clusters. The sudden collapse of that market share was one of the most dramatic consequences of Washington’s national security-driven chip policy.

Now, the market is partially reopening—and the financial impact has been swift. Nvidia’s market capitalization has added roughly $200 billion since early reports suggested Washington may loosen restrictions, according to market commentary from The Kobeissi Letter.

Jensen Huang has won again.

Trump Criticizes Previous Restrictions

In his detailed Truth Social post, Trump argued that the prior administration forced US chipmakers to spend billions creating “degraded products that nobody wanted”. He positioned the new export structure as a balance between national security, manufacturing incentives and retaining US leadership in artificial intelligence.

He also emphasized that Nvidia’s most advanced products—including the Blackwell and upcoming Rubin architectures—are not part of the China deal, signalling continued segmentation between frontier AI technology and export-approved hardware.

Industry Impact: A Turning Point for US Chip Giants

Nvidia’s partial restoration of China access may reshape the competitive landscape for advanced compute. For AMD and Intel, which continue to develop AI accelerators aimed at the hyperscale market, the policy shift offers a potential return to billions in previously restricted demand.

From a geopolitical standpoint, analysts say the move indicates a more flexible, transactional approach to semiconductor policy—one that ties export permissions to economic returns for the US and compliance guarantees for China.

Today marks a pivotal moment for the AI hardware industry. If China demand continues to normalize under the new structure, Nvidia’s dominant position in global AI compute could strengthen even further.

Key Takeaways

• US approves Nvidia’s H200 exports to approved Chinese buyers.
• Policy includes a 25% payment to the US government.
• AMD and Intel expected to receive similar treatment.
• Nvidia’s market cap has risen by ~$200B amid renewed China optimism.
• Blackwell and Rubin chips remain fully restricted.