America’s Energy Infrastructure May Not Withstand the AI Surge
BlackRock’s new outlook warns that energy supply—not chips—will be the main constraint on AI growth, as U.S. data centers may consume up to 20% of national electricity by 2030.
Olivia Carter
From an editorial perspective, the underlying message is clear: the AI revolution may advance faster than the world’s ability to power it.
Artificial intelligence is expanding at a pace that now exceeds the limits of physical infrastructure, according to BlackRock’s 2026 Global Outlook. The report highlights that the primary bottleneck in the AI buildout is no longer access to chips — but access to energy.
AI data centers may consume up to 15–20% of U.S. electricity by 2030
BlackRock cites estimates showing that the exploding demand for compute could lift data-center power consumption to 15–20% of the entire U.S. electricity load by the end of the decade — with some forecasts suggesting an even higher share. This level of demand would place unprecedented strain on the American power grid.
Rising energy needs collide with slow permitting systems, long interconnection queues, and an aging transmission network. “Companies haven’t struggled to get chips — the real constraint is land and energy,” the report notes.
China moves faster — and gains structural advantages
BlackRock draws a sharp contrast between the U.S. and China. While the U.S. faces regulatory and grid bottlenecks, China is rapidly expanding its generation and transmission capacity. This includes a mix of nuclear, coal, hydro, and record-scale renewable production, all of which reduce costs for domestic AI deployment.
The Outlook suggests that China’s efficiency in scaling energy infrastructure gives it a competitive advantage in building and powering the next generation of AI systems.
Private capital will need to fill the gap
With governments constrained by high debt levels, BlackRock expects private capital to play a central role in financing new power systems, grid enhancements and supporting infrastructure. Energy bottlenecks, they argue, will become a major investment theme of the decade — spanning utilities, critical minerals, transmission projects and permitting reform.
A structural challenge with broad market impact
The report concludes that constraints on energy supply may slow down the AI buildout, reshape corporate investment plans and influence regional competitiveness. At the same time, these pressures create new opportunities for investors positioned in power infrastructure and AI-adjacent industries.
“The limits are physical, financial and geopolitical,” BlackRock writes. “Energy sits at the centre of all three.”
BlackRock’s full 2026 Global Outlook, including methodology and complete data tables, is available at the link below.
