Banks Go Bearish, Institutions Go Bullish: The Battle Over Bitcoin’s Future

Standard Chartered has sharply reduced its Bitcoin price forecast for 2025, lowering its target from $200,000 to $100,000. The bank cited a noticeable slowdown in institutional inflows as the main driver behind the revision — a contrast to the strong demand that fueled the first wave of post-ETF adoption earlier this year.

The downgrade comes at a moment when long-term crypto advocates see the industry entering a fundamentally different growth phase. While banks are turning cautious, some of the largest voices in digital assets argue the next decade may deliver the strongest expansion in the sector’s history.

Bitwise: Crypto Market Could Grow 10–20× in the Next Decade

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said he expects the crypto market to expand by 10 to 20 times over the next 10 years, driven by large-scale adoption, tokenization of financial assets and rapid global growth of stablecoins.

Hougan pointed to recent comments from SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda Atkins, who stated that “all markets in the United States will eventually move to blockchain.” According to Hougan, this shift places Bitcoin and public blockchains at the center of future market infrastructure.

Corporations Already Hold Over 5% of All BTC

Data from CoinGecko shows that publicly traded companies now collectively hold more than 5% of Bitcoin’s total supply on their balance sheets. This marks one of the fastest periods of corporate accumulation in Bitcoin’s history.

One firm stands out: Strategy, which now controls roughly 3% of the entire BTC supply, placing it among the world’s largest holders.

Kathy Wood: This Bitcoin Cycle May Break the 4-Year Pattern

ARK Invest CEO Kathy Wood said she expects the classic four-year Bitcoin cycle — historically defined by sharp run-ups followed by deep 75–90% drawdowns — to be disrupted.

Her reasoning: persistent institutional and corporate buying. According to Wood, steady accumulation from ETFs, public companies and long-horizon investors will make it structurally harder for BTC to enter the kind of deep bear markets seen in previous cycles.

That view aligns with balance-sheet data showing that structural holders are absorbing a larger share of new supply than ever before.

A Market Split Between Short-Term Caution and Long-Term Optimism

The result is a striking divergence: while Standard Chartered sees weaker institutional appetite today, long-term allocators argue the fundamentals have never been stronger.

Slower flows in the near term vs. long-horizon structural demand — this tension may define the BTC market in 2025 and beyond.