Markets Open Week on Cautious Optimism Ahead of PCE

U.S. equity futures were slightly higher at the start of the week as investors positioned ahead of a busy macroeconomic calendar, including the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index and third-quarter GDP data.

The cautious advance follows a positive close on Friday, when major benchmarks ended the session higher amid a rebound in technology stocks and improving short-term technical signals.

Market Snapshot

During the previous trading session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both finished in positive territory. The S&P 500 broke above a short-term descending trendline and managed to hold above the 6,800 level. The Nasdaq moved through the upper boundary of a local downward channel, closing near 25,400.

In early trading, S&P 500 futures extended modest gains and are approaching resistance near 6,900, while support remains concentrated around 6,800. Nasdaq futures are also trading higher, with resistance near 25,900 and support around 25,400.

Key Drivers This Week

Investor focus is centered on the delayed release of the core PCE price index for October, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Additional macro releases this week include third-quarter GDP data and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for December.

Labor market indicators are also in focus, including weekly initial jobless claims and the ADP private employment report. Together, these data points are expected to influence expectations around economic momentum and the future path of monetary policy.

Geopolitical developments are adding another layer of complexity. Heightened pressure from the United States on Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro has raised concerns about potential disruptions to oil supply. U.S. naval vessels have reportedly been tracking tankers transporting Venezuelan crude as part of stricter enforcement measures, intensifying fears of reduced exports.

As a result, oil prices moved higher during Asia-Pacific trading, lifting sentiment across energy markets. Shares of oil producers may see increased interest if supply-side risks continue to build.

At the same time, investors are beginning to factor in the possibility of a traditional Santa Claus rally, typically observed from late December into early January. Confidence in this seasonal pattern remains mixed, however. Elevated valuations across parts of the technology sector and persistently high capital expenditures tied to AI infrastructure continue to restrain risk appetite and encourage selective positioning.

Overall, futures are showing modest gains, with the balance of risks remaining neutral. Volatility is contained, and near-term expectations for the S&P 500 are centered within the 6,800–6,880 range.

Sector Performance

Cyclical sectors showed mostly positive momentum in the previous session. Industrials and aerospace-related segments led gains, while consumer discretionary and real estate stocks finished lower.

Growth-oriented sectors also posted gains, led by semiconductors, biotechnology, and IPO-focused segments. Cannabis-related equities underperformed.

Defensive sectors were mixed, with utilities under pressure, while healthcare managed to close modestly higher.

Cross-Asset Signals

In commodities, oil prices staged a modest rebound toward the 57 level after breaking above the upper boundary of a short-term descending channel. Treasury yields continued to trade within a local range, holding below resistance near 4.2%.

Volatility remains subdued, with the VIX hovering near the 15 level and continuing to move within a narrow upward channel. Gold extended its rally, setting a new all-time high after breaking above the 4,400 resistance level.