S&P 500 Futures Stabilize Above 6900 as Year-End Volumes Thin

US equity futures are trading in a narrow consolidation range at the start of the week, with investors refraining from aggressive positioning ahead of several key macroeconomic releases. The publication of the FOMC meeting minutes and weekly initial jobless claims is set to define short-term market direction as the year draws to a close.

Previous session: indices stall near highs

Major US indices closed the previous week with near-flat performance. The S&P 500 briefly pushed to a fresh all-time high during the session but finished around 6,930, essentially unchanged on the day. The Nasdaq ended near 25,640, testing a local descending channel drawn from the October highs.

Futures today: consolidation dominates

In early trading, S&P 500 futures remain anchored above the 6,900 level, holding within the record-high zone. Immediate technical support is located near 6,880. Nasdaq futures have pulled back modestly from the 25,900 area, while maintaining a broader short-term uptrend. Key support is seen around 25,400.

Once again, investors are recalibrating expectations rather than chasing momentum — a familiar year-end pattern.

What is driving the market now

The main macro focus this week is the release of the FOMC minutes, which investors view as a critical guide for the trajectory of US interest rates and risk assets heading into early 2026. Markets will also digest weekly jobless claims, the housing price index, and PMI data, all of which may influence expectations for economic momentum.

Stabilisation in US Treasury yields continues to provide support for equities, particularly Big Tech. According to JPMorgan, the US labor market may face an “uncomfortably slow growth” phase in the first half of 2026, followed by a potential recovery later in the year.

At the same time, US indices are holding close to record levels amid subdued trading volumes, a typical feature of the final weeks of the calendar year.

Sector performance

• Cyclical sectors: Mostly negative, with ITA and XLY leading declines; XLB and XLRE closed modestly higher.
• Growth sectors: Broad weakness, led lower by MJ and IPO; SKYY and XLK finished slightly in positive territory.
• Defensive sectors: Mixed performance, with XLV showing relative strength while XLU edged marginally lower.

Intermarket signals

Crude oil continues to trade within a local upward channel, holding above the $57 level. Treasury yields are consolidating as they approach support near 4.1%. The VIX, after setting a yearly low, has opened a gap higher and broken above a short-term descending trendline.

Gold saw a modest pullback but remains firmly positioned near record levels, holding above $4,500, signalling continued demand for hedging despite equity markets sitting near historic highs.

From a market-structure perspective, the significance lies in the balance between resilient risk appetite and growing sensitivity to policy signals — a setup that often precedes volatility once liquidity returns in January.

Neutral backdrop supports Santa Claus rally narrative

Today’s macro calendar includes the release of Pending Home Sales for November. While the data will help gauge near-term demand in the US housing market, it is unlikely to become a meaningful driver for intraday trading dynamics.

From a technical perspective, equities may continue to benefit from seasonal tailwinds commonly referred to as the Santa Claus rally — a period that historically sees modest upside bias amid lower liquidity and reduced volatility.

The external backdrop remains mixed. On the positive side, markets may respond constructively to reports that negotiations aimed at resolving the Russia–Ukraine conflict included security guarantees agreed between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky. At the same time, risk sentiment could be capped by renewed concerns over Chinese military drills near Taiwan, which reintroduce geopolitical uncertainty into the Asia-Pacific region.

In commodities, silver remains in focus after briefly touching $80 per ounce amid signs of physical supply tightness, followed by a corrective pullback.

US equity futures are trading with a mildly negative bias, though overall volatility remains subdued. The current risk balance is best described as neutral, with the S&P 500 expected to oscillate within a 6,900–6,960 range in the near term.

Technical analysis by: Lucas Grant, Senior Technical Analyst at Finmire.