S&P 500 Rises in January Nearly Two-Thirds of the Time

January has historically been one of the strongest months of the year for U.S. equities, according to long-term data on the S&P 500 going back to 1928.

Over this period, the index posted positive returns in January in 62.2% of cases, making it the third-best month by frequency of gains. Only 37 out of the last 97 years saw the S&P 500 end January in negative territory.

On average, January delivered a return of approximately +1.2%, ranking as the fourth strongest month by average performance.

January’s importance extends beyond the month itself. Historically, when the S&P 500 finishes January in positive territory, the index goes on to post an average full-year gain of +11.8%, with positive annual returns occurring in nearly 80% of cases.

The relationship becomes even more pronounced following particularly strong starts to the year. When January gains exceed 5%, the S&P 500 has historically recorded an average annual return of around +16.0%.

While past performance does not guarantee future results, the data highlights January’s long-standing role as a statistically important month for U.S. equity markets.