China’s Trade Surplus Hits Record $1.1 Trillion as Exports Accelerate in 2025

From an editorial perspective, the significance lies in the scale of China’s export resilience — even at a time when geopolitical tensions and supply-chain realignments remain elevated.

China’s goods trade surplus climbed 21% year-on-year to a record $1.1 trillion in the first eleven months of 2025, surpassing the previous full-year peak of $990 billion. According to China’s Customs General Administration, the country has now nearly tripled its surplus compared with 2019, underscoring a structural shift in global trade flows.

November Surplus Was the Third-Largest on Record

In November alone, the trade gap widened to $112 billion, marking the third-largest monthly surplus ever recorded. Exports grew 5.9% YoY, significantly outpacing the 1.9% YoY increase in imports.

While shipments to the United States fell 29% YoY — the steepest decline since August and the eighth straight month of double-digit drops — Beijing has offset this weakness by deepening commercial ties elsewhere.

Surging Trade With Non-U.S. Partners

China ramped up exports to the EU, Africa, Southeast Asia and a broad set of emerging economies. These regions absorbed a growing share of Chinese manufactured goods, helping stabilise China’s industrial output even as traditional demand channels softened.

“China is increasingly reshaping its trade map, expanding reliance on non-U.S. partners,” reported the official X account of The Kobeissi Letter.

Why This Matters for Global Markets

• Wider surplus strengthens China’s external balance ahead of 2026 policy decisions.
• Export reorientation signals long-term diversification away from U.S. demand.
• Global supply chains continue shifting toward multi-regional structures.
• Emerging markets are becoming a larger share of China’s manufacturing ecosystem.

With December still ahead, China is on track to secure its first-ever $1 trillion+ full-year goods trade surplus, reshaping global trade dynamics at a time when domestic economies across Asia and Europe remain uneven.