Investors Await Key U.S. Macro Data as Volatility Remains Elevated

Investor focus has shifted firmly to U.S. macroeconomic data, with markets awaiting fresh readings on personal income, consumer spending, and the core PCE inflation index for October–November.

According to Freedom Broker’s outlook, income growth is expected to slow to around 0.3% month over month, while consumer spending remains resilient. Consensus expectations for core PCE point to a 0.2% monthly increase. A print in line with forecasts would likely support risk assets.

Key data on deck

In addition to inflation data, investors will closely monitor weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending January 17. The market consensus stands at 215,000, compared with the previous reading of 198,000.

Later in the session, attention will also turn to the release of U.S. GDP data for the third quarter, which should offer further insight into the pace of economic growth and its implications for monetary policy.

Earnings spotlight: Intel

On the corporate side, Intel’s earnings report stands out. Investors are looking for confirmation that rising capital expenditure in artificial intelligence is translating into tangible demand and improved operating metrics.

Weak guidance could revive doubts about the sustainability of the current AI-driven investment cycle, while confident outlooks would likely support sentiment across the broader semiconductor sector.

Futures and technical backdrop

U.S. equity futures are showing a modest positive bias. The overall risk balance remains neutral, although volatility is elevated.

The S&P 500 is expected to trade within a broad range between 6,800 and 6,950. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are edging higher as investors position ahead of GDP and PCE releases.

What happened in the previous session

In the prior trading day, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed higher. The S&P 500 held the lower boundary of its medium-term ascending channel and rebounded toward 6,875.

The Nasdaq remained above the 25,000 level and finished near 25,300, trading close to its 50-day moving average.

Market action today

Today, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures continue to post moderate gains. S&P futures are consolidating above 6,900 within a medium-term uptrend.

Nasdaq futures are holding above 25,500 and are approaching a test of a local descending trendline.

Sector performance

Cyclical sectors are leading gains alongside the broader market, with strength in XLE, XLB, XLY, and XRT.

Growth sectors are mostly higher, led by SOXX, IBB, and TAN, while IPO ended the previous session lower.

Defensive sectors show mixed performance. XLV continues to advance within an established ascending channel.

Intermarket snapshot

Oil prices remain within a local upward channel, trading near the $60 level.

U.S. Treasury yields continue to retrace after a sharp rise, with the 10-year yield near 4.24%.

The VIX is drifting lower, approaching the lower boundary of its local ascending channel and the 16 level.

Gold continues to trade near record highs, holding above $4,800 per ounce.

Technical analysis by: Lucas Grant, Senior Technical Analyst at Finmire.