News Flow Tilts the Balance Toward Buyers

US equity markets are entering the session with a more constructive tone. Fresh policy headlines and a lighter macro calendar are shifting attention toward earnings, White House initiatives, and near-term technical levels.

Trade Developments in Focus

Investor sentiment improved following details of a new trade understanding between the United States and India, disclosed after the previous session closed.

According to the announcement, mutual tariffs on Indian goods will be reduced from 25% to 18% in exchange for New Delhi’s commitment to halt purchases of Russian oil. In addition, India is expected to allocate more than $500 billion toward purchases of US energy, technology, and agricultural products.

If implemented, the agreement could drive a meaningful reallocation of global trade flows, providing longer-term support for US exporters and the energy sector.

Macro Calendar Thins Out

The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed delays to the release of both the JOLTS job openings data and the January employment report. As a result, investors are temporarily shifting focus away from labor-market signals and toward corporate earnings and policy headlines.

With fewer scheduled macro catalysts, the market’s sensitivity to individual news items is likely to increase.

Futures and Index Levels

US equity futures are trading modestly higher. The risk balance has shifted toward the upside, with volatility remaining contained.

The S&P 500 is expected to trade within a 6,940–7,025 range. Both S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are showing gains, supported by improving sentiment and stabilization across risk assets.

Previous Session Recap

In the prior session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed higher.

The S&P 500 maintained price action above the 6,900 level and once again moved closer to record highs. The Nasdaq held above its 50-day moving average and tested the 25,800 area.

Today’s Technical Setup

S&P 500 futures are testing the 7,000 level while holding within the record-high zone. Key support remains at 6,900.

Nasdaq futures have returned to a medium-term ascending channel, currently probing the 26,000 level. Initial support is seen near 25,500.

Price action suggests buyers remain in control as long as these support levels hold.

What Is Moving the Market

• December JOLTS job openings are scheduled for release later today.
• January manufacturing PMI came in slightly above expectations.
• The January US employment report remains delayed due to the ongoing partial government shutdown.
• Precious metals are showing signs of stabilization following a sharp correction.
• Treasury yields remain volatile amid uncertainty over the timing of potential rate cuts.

Sector Performance

Cyclical sectors showed mixed performance. Retail and industrials led gains, while energy and real estate lagged.

Growth sectors were mixed. Semiconductors and biotechnology advanced, while IPO-related and communication stocks underperformed.

Defensive sectors outperformed overall, with consumer staples leading gains. Utilities finished lower.

Intermarket Snapshot

Oil continues to hover near the lower boundary of its local uptrend around $61.5.

US Treasury yields are forming an upward channel and approaching a test of the 4.3% level.

VIX is probing the lower boundary of its local ascending channel near 16.

Gold is attempting to recover after a recent pullback, moving back toward the 5,000 level.

Market Takeaway

With labor-market data delayed and trade headlines turning supportive, the near-term bias favors buyers. As long as volatility remains contained and key technical levels hold, risk appetite is likely to stay intact.

Technical analysis by: Lucas Grant, Senior Technical Analyst at Finmire.