US Futures Flat Ahead of Key Labor Market Data

US equity markets are entering the session in a cautious mood, with investors awaiting fresh labor market data and signals from central banks. Futures on major US indices are trading near flat, reflecting a neutral risk balance amid elevated volatility.

Key Macro Events in Focus

Today’s macro calendar is centred on the labour market. Delayed JOLTS data for December, postponed during the recent government shutdown, is expected to provide further clarity on labour demand dynamics.

In addition, the US will release weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending January 31. Consensus expectations stand at 213,000, compared with 209,000 previously. The data will serve as an important gauge of labour market resilience.

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook reiterated that the Fed’s primary objective remains returning inflation to the 2% target while preserving confidence in monetary policy. She noted that, barring a sharp deterioration in the labour market, inflation risks remain the dominant concern — explaining the Fed’s decision to pause rate cuts.

Market Snapshot

US equity index futures are showing near-zero performance. The overall risk balance remains neutral, though volatility is elevated.

Reference range for S&P 500: 6830–6930.

Previous Session Recap

During the prior session, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed lower.

• S&P 500 broke below the 6900 support level but held above its 50-day moving average.
• Nasdaq slipped below 25,000, extending losses toward the 24,900 area.

Technical Outlook — Today

Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are consolidating.

• S&P 500 futures are testing resistance near 6900 while holding close to the lower boundary of the medium-term price channel. Key support is located at 6800.
• Nasdaq futures, having dropped out of the medium-term uptrend, are consolidating near 25,000. Support is seen around 24,600.

What’s Driving Markets Now

• Publication of weekly US jobless claims.
• Ongoing sector rotation, which continues to weigh on technology stocks.
• Expectations that the Bank of England will keep rates unchanged as UK inflation remains above target.
• Bitcoin has declined to levels last seen in 2024 amid reduced risk appetite and firmer Fed rate expectations.
• Markets are also awaiting remarks from FOMC member Raphael Bostic for potential clues on economic and monetary policy outlook.

Sector Performance

Cyclical sectors showed mostly positive momentum, led by XLB and XLE, while ITA and XLY underperformed.

Growth sectors delivered mixed results. TAN and MJ led gains, while SOXX and XLK posted declines.

Defensive sectors were broadly positive, with XLP leading gains, while XLU ended the session lower.

Cross-Asset Signals

• Oil continues to move within a local ascending channel, approaching a test of the 64.5 level.
• US Treasury yields remain in a medium-term upward channel, holding near 4.27%.
• VIX is trading within a local uptrend and is testing a medium-term descending trendline.
• Gold remains above the 4900 level after forming a local downward trendline from recent highs.

Technical analysis by: Lucas Grant, Senior Technical Analyst at Finmire.